Friday, 10 August 2012

Daily FX Commentary: (Morning Report)

Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.


Daily FX Commentary: (Morning Report)


EUR/USD

Yesterday’s negative move managed to drop the pair below 1.2330 support and so far reached to 1.2265, support will become a resistance and any rise above 1.2325/35 will give bulls the power to test 1.2380. 1.2330 zone which is low of 8 Aug is also 38.2% Fibo of 1.2440/1.2265, and 50% Fibo of 1.2390/1.2265 drop. First barrier on the downside is at 1.2250 followed by 1.2215, in which will open 1.2180 & 1.2135 if broken.

Res: 1.2330, 1.2380, 1.2440, 1.2505
Sup: 1.2250, 1.2215, 1.2180, 1.2135 




GBP/USD

Same higher low pattern is formed while highs for the past few days remained intact at 1.5680/90 zone. On daily and 4h chart momentum is giving mixed signals, the 1h chart indicates a potential downturn. Any break of 1.5600 and 1.5570 would indicate a potential drop to 1.5545 and 1.5490 next. The upside is still protected by 1.5680/90 and a break there would open 1.5730 and 1.5770 next.

Res: 1.5680, 1.5690, 1.5730, 1.5770
Sup: 1.5600, 1.5570, 1.5545, 1.5490


USD/JPY

The pair remains in a side way trend as long as 78.70/80 zone is not broken, a break there would open the way for bulls to test 79.15, 80.00 and 80.60 next. On the downside a break of 78.25 would illuminate the higher low pattern for a test of 77.90, and 77.60 next. The latter will start negative acceleration if broken to 76 zone and a potential BOJ intervention.

Res: 78.70, 79.10, 80.00, 80.60
Sup: 76.25, 77.90, 77.65, 77.30




















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Daily Market Commentary: (Evening Report)


London Market Report

Footsie up, but Eurozone fears limit gains

Market Movers
techMARK 2,113.51 -0.14%
FTSE 100 5,851.51 +0.10%
FTSE 250 11,464.03 +0.24%
FTSE 100 nudges higher for fifth straight gain
Cooling inflation in China boosts stimulus hopes
ECB cuts growth forecasts

London's Footsie swung between gains and losses on Thursday as hopes of Chinese stimulus were offset by concerns about weak growth in the Eurozone; however, the benchmark index finished slightly in the blue as it extended its winning streak to five straight days.

Chinese consumer price inflation slowed to 1.8% in July from a 2.2% increase in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing. While this was broadly in line with expectations, analysts are saying this morning that this has left the door open to more monetary easing in the world's second-largest economy.

However, the European Central Bank's (ECB's) monthly report dampened sentiment today after the Bank downgraded its growth prospects for the Eurozone economy. The ECB now expects the region to contract by 0.3% this year, slightly worse than the 0.2% fall originally estimated, while 2013 growth will be 0.6%, under the previous forecast of 1%.

"Survey indicators generally disappointed in July, hinting at a further weakening of momentum entering 3Q12. While we still project EMU-wide real GDP to shrink another 0.2% in the current quarter, we now see some modest downside risks to our forecast," said analysts at UniCredit in an emailed note this afternoon.

The ECB's growth downgrades come one day after the Bank of England reduced its forecasts for gross domestic product in the UK, now expecting no growth for the economy this year.

Meanwhile, DBRS has decided to cut Spain’s rating two notches to 'A (low)' and downgraded Italy by one notch to 'A', although it kept its negative outlook on both countries. The Canadian credit ratings agency is one of the four used by the ECB to determine the charges when accepting sovereign debt as collateral.


Europe Market Report 

Nokia, Nestle surge; bond yields rise
Stocks up slightly
Nestle results drive sentiment
Nokia surges on app business sale

FTSE 100: +0.01%
Dax 30: -0.06%
Stoxx 600: +0.33%
Cac 40: +0.47%
Ibex 35: -0.63%
FTSE MIB: -0.01%

Most major European stock markets posted small gains on Thursday as Chinese inflation offered no surprises. The cost of living in China rose 1.8% in July, compared to the same month last year. This was broadly in line with expectations.

There were some significant shifts for shorter term sovereign bonds on Thursday as investors pondered whether the European Central Bank (ECB) has the firepower and political backing to ease Europe’s debt crisis.

The two-year Italian bond yield had climbed seven basis points by 15:23 in London to 3.27% while Spanish equivalents had gained 16 basis points to 4.03%.

This implies investors are losing patience with the ECB’s protestation that it “would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro”. President Mario Draghi’s comments at the beginning of the month had brought borrowing costs down but, at the shorter end of the spectrum, they are rising once again.

US Market Report

Jobless boost keeps stocks onside

Dow Jones: +4 at 13,179
S&P 500: +2 at 1,405
NASDAQ Composite: +8 at 3,019
US stocks kept their winning streak on the go in the morning session, though the advance was anything buyt convincing.

Jobless claims gave a bit of support, falling unexpectedly to 361,000 last week; economists had been predicting a rise to 370,000.
E*Trade marked up
Stockbroker E*Trade was wanted after jettisoning its Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Steven Freiberg. CHairman Frank Petrilli will assume executive duties while the company looks for a new CEO.

Monster Beverage released results after the bell yesterday and to say the soft drinks maker's figures fell flat would be an understatement. Second quarter profit rose 30$ to $110m, equivalent to 59 cenrts a share but the market had pencilled in a figure of 62 cents for ernings per share. That was the cue for proift takers to bale out of the high-flying shares.

Gold miner Randgold Resources jumped after seeing profits surge in the first half of 2012 on the back of a record performance from its flagship Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali.
Other markets
US Treasuries are sliding back, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rising to 1.72% from 1.69% yesterday evening.

West Texas light sweet crude for September delivery is trading at $93.87 a barrel in New York, up 52 cents on the day.

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