Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report
are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer
or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or
CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are
subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without
regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and
needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price
movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not
represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to
reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was
obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee
its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for
any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the
reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Daily FX Commentary: (Morning Report)
EUR/USD
The Euro starts the week in a positive mode, recovering a part of losses of a pullback from 1.3138 that found ground at 1.3012. Weekly closure above psychological 1.3000 support keeps overall positive tone. Hourly MACD is approaching the midline, with strong bullish momentum evident, but 4h chart studies are losing traction, as price struggles to clear 20 day EMA at 1.3050. Unless minimum 1.3075, 50% of 1.3138/1.3012 is regained, downside would remain vulnerable, with near-term risk seen on a break below 1.3000, also 55 day EMA that would signal further easing and possibly expose 1.2900 zone. Conversely, strength above 1.3075/1.3100, to open initial 1.3138 barrier, ahead of key one at 1.3170, also near-term range top.
Res: 1.3076, 1.3100, 1.3138, 1.3170
Sup: 1.3010, 1.3000, 1.2990, 1.2970
GBP/USD
Near-term structure remains negative, as the pair suffered heavy losses last week, following upside rejection at 1.6178, trendline resistance, with subsequent sharp fall nearly fully retracing 1.5974/1.6178 recovery rally at 1.5989, overnight’s low. Bounce higher is so far seen corrective, as hourly and 4h studies remain in the negative territory. Extension above 1.6060, last Friday’s highs / Fib 38.2% of 1.6178//1.5989, would provide temporary relief, however, break above 1.6150, trendline resistance and 1.6178, previous top, is required to confirm double-bottom and allow for stronger recovery of broader 1.6308/1.5275 downtrend. Continuation of the downtrend is seen on a break below 1.5974 that will expose another significant support at 1.5900 zone.
Res: 1.6040, 1.6060, 1.6066, 1.6083
Sup: 1.5989, 1.5975, 1.5958, 1.5910
USD/JPY
The week starts with fresh strength, as the price closed above 79.00 support, with rally through 200 day MA / previous high at 79.40/45, now heading towards 80.00, psychological barrier, as interim resistance at 79.65 is penetrated. Positive tone dominates on both, 1 and 4h charts, however, hourly RSI already in overbought zone and overextended 4h chart indicators, suggest that corrective pullback may precede fresh rally, with no clear reversal signal generated yet.
Res: 79.94, 80.00, 80.09, 80.61
Sup: 79.45, 79.40, 79.21, 79.21
USD/CHF
Hourly studies weakened, as the price slides lower, following reversal from 0.9288, peak of recovery rally from 0.9214, 17/18 Oct lows. More negative structure is seen on 4h chart studies, with 55 day EMA capping and price sliding bellow 20 day EMA that increases risk of re-visiting 0.9214 support, loss of which to signal a resumption of broader downtrend from 0.9970, as formation of double-top at 0.9400 zone signal further downside extension.
Res: 0.9288, 0.9292, 0.9310, 0.9350
Sup: 0.9254, 0.9240, 0.9214, 0.9200
Daily Market Commentary: (Evening Report)
London close: Stocks decline after Caterpillar earnings
Market Movers
- techMARK 2,104.00 -0.42%
- FTSE 100 5,882.91 -0.22%
- FTSE 250 12,040.01 -0.28%
- Caterpillar disappoints with guidance
- Kenny-Merkel statement reassures Ireland
- BP falls after confirming Rosneft deal
After a brief stint in positive territory, UK stocks fell into the red by the close on Monday after some disappointing guidance for US economic bellwether Caterpillar dampened sentiment late on.
While Caterpillar beat earnings forecasts in the third quarter, the industrial machines giant's guidance was disappointing: the company estimates that full-year earnings per share (EPS) will be $9.00-9.25, down from $9.60 last year and below the current $9.40 consensus estimate.
"The general trend of the earnings season appears to be continuing today. Of the 12 companies that reported before the opening bell, 10 beat earnings expectations however only half reported higher revenue from a year earlier. With the global economy expected to deteriorate before it improves, these figures are likely to worsen in the coming quarters," said market analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari.
Nevertheless, improving newsflow from the Eurozone gave markets a lift earlier on, albeit only slightly. A decent outcome for Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy at the regional elections at the weekend and a joint statement issued by Irish Taoiseach Enda Kenny and German Chancellor Angela Merkel managed to ease concerns temporarily.
Following on from Merkel's confusing comments at Friday's EU summit that there would be "no retroactive direct bank recapitulation", the Kenny-Merkel statement reassured that the Eurozone is committed to addressing Ireland's bank debts: "Ireland is a special case, and that the Eurogroup will take that into account."
Worries about the Japanese economy were also weighing on investors' minds today after exports dropped by their most since the aftermath of last year's earthquake and tsunami. Exports declined 10.3% year-on-year last month, worse than the 5.8% decrease in August and the 9.9% fall expected. The trade deficit was 588.6bn yen, higher than the 547.9bn expected by the consensus of analysts. Imports rose by a more-than-expected 4.1%.
- Kenny-Merkel statement reassures Ireland
- BP falls after confirming Rosneft deal
After a brief stint in positive territory, UK stocks fell into the red by the close on Monday after some disappointing guidance for US economic bellwether Caterpillar dampened sentiment late on.
While Caterpillar beat earnings forecasts in the third quarter, the industrial machines giant's guidance was disappointing: the company estimates that full-year earnings per share (EPS) will be $9.00-9.25, down from $9.60 last year and below the current $9.40 consensus estimate.
"The general trend of the earnings season appears to be continuing today. Of the 12 companies that reported before the opening bell, 10 beat earnings expectations however only half reported higher revenue from a year earlier. With the global economy expected to deteriorate before it improves, these figures are likely to worsen in the coming quarters," said market analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari.
Nevertheless, improving newsflow from the Eurozone gave markets a lift earlier on, albeit only slightly. A decent outcome for Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy at the regional elections at the weekend and a joint statement issued by Irish Taoiseach Enda Kenny and German Chancellor Angela Merkel managed to ease concerns temporarily.
Following on from Merkel's confusing comments at Friday's EU summit that there would be "no retroactive direct bank recapitulation", the Kenny-Merkel statement reassured that the Eurozone is committed to addressing Ireland's bank debts: "Ireland is a special case, and that the Eurogroup will take that into account."
Worries about the Japanese economy were also weighing on investors' minds today after exports dropped by their most since the aftermath of last year's earthquake and tsunami. Exports declined 10.3% year-on-year last month, worse than the 5.8% decrease in August and the 9.9% fall expected. The trade deficit was 588.6bn yen, higher than the 547.9bn expected by the consensus of analysts. Imports rose by a more-than-expected 4.1%.
Europe Market Report
Europe midday: Stocks trim losses
-Ireland is not an exception to ESM conditions-DPA
-Philips earnings rise on cost savings
-Automobile suppliers lower after Deutsche Bank downgrade
-German GDP may contract in quarter four -Buba
-Investors watching technical support levels
-Some still fear Spain will wait too long to as
FTSE-100: 0.01%
Dax-30: -0.17%
Cac-40: 0.03%
FTSE-Mibtel 30: 0.52%
Ibex 35: -0.11%
Stoxx 600: -0.03%
The main European equity benchmarks are now trading somewhat mixed, but they have trimmed their earlier losses.
That following the sharp drops seen last Friday on Wall Street, with some observers now fearing that recent poor company earnings from several technology heavyweights -such as IBM or Google- may be a harbinger of economic weakness to come. That, at last, is what some analysts are saying as the corporate confession season trundles on.
To be had in account, this week will see another deluge of company earnings in the US, with those in Europe progressively ramping up.
According to Thomson Reuters data, out of the 8% of companies on the STOXX Europe 600 index that have reported results so far, 48% have missed forecasts.
Back in the US, of the 116 S&P 500 companies which have confessed thus far, 58% have missed on revenue expectations, as the economy took a tool on their results.
Adding to the gloom, and acting as a backdrop, was the weak trade data out overnight in Japan. As well, in its latest quarterly report the Bank of Japan has cut its economic assessment for most regions in the country, due to the slowdown overseas it said.
From a sector stand-point the worst performance on the DJ Stoxx 600 is now to be seen in the shares of the following industrial groups: Utilities (-0.57%), Banks (-0.68%) and Automobiles (-1%).
No major economic data releases are due out this morning.
US Market Report
|
No comments:
Post a Comment