Wednesday 31 October 2012

Daily Market Commentary

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Daily Market Commentary: (Evening Report)


London Market Report

London close: Sandy aftermath and Eurozone concerns sink stocks
Market Movers
  • techMARK 2,082.56 -0.96%
  • FTSE 100 5,782.70 -1.15%
  • FTSE 250 11,934.95 -0.16%
The resumption of trading on Wall Street after a two-day closure and a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers was enough to weigh on London's stock market on Wednesday, not to mention some sharp falls from heavy hitters BG Group and Barclays.

US benchmarks re-opened in the red today after Hurricane Sandy left millions without power and killed dozens on the American East Coast. This was the first time since 1888 that the weather has halted trading for two consecutive days.

Market analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari said this afternoon: "There are no real surprises to what we have seen since the markets opened in the US. Insurance companies are trading lower following the devastating effects of Hurricane Sandy. It is too early to tell at this point what the cost of the damage will be to insurance companies, but early estimates suggest it could be up to $15 billion, severely damaging fourth-quarter profits."

On this side of the Atlantic, Eurozone finance ministers today urged Greek leaders "to solve remaining issues so as to swiftly finalise the negotiations [with the Troika]," according to Eurogroup head and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble reportedly said that it is unlikely that the Troika will receive the final report on Greece before the next Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers on November 11-12th. That means that traders will have to wait a little bit longer for any possible solution to the current impasse in Greece.

Meanwhile, in perhaps the most specific reference to the timing of a full bailout request, Spanish government sources have told local radio station SER that a request for international aid should not be expected this year.


Europe Market Report 

Europe midday: Stocks waiting on Eurozone finance ministers
-Spanish central government budget deficit falls to 4.39 per cent
-Eurogroup teleconference now in progress
-Eurozone banks tightened lending standards in third quarter -ECB

FTSE-100: -0.14%
Dax-30: 0.60%
Cac-40: 0.31%
FTSE Mibtel 30: 0.98%
Ibex 35: 0.74%
Stoxx 600: 0.20%

For the most part the major European equity benchmarks are now trading moderately higher.

That ahead of what may turn out to be a somewhat haphazard re-start to trading Stateside, a few observers are worrying. In a more positive vein, investors seem to be concentrating on the positive macroeconomic data out today in Germany, which has come alongside some better than expected company results.

Acting as a backdrop we have this afternoon´s result of the conference-call between Eurozone finance ministers to discuss the situation in Greece, which is now in progress. No firm new decisions are expected but the news flow could conceivably influence markets.

Also of interest, according to the European Central Bank´s (ECB) latest bank lending survey a net 15% of the Eurozone´s banks which took part in the survey tightened their criteria for firms to borrow in the third quarter, up from 10% in the second quarter.

Eurozone unemployment at new record
Spain´s current account surplus increased to €1.2bn in August, above the previous month´s reading of €0.5bn.

The Eurozone´s unemployment rate rose by a tenth of a percentage point in September, to 11.6%, from a revised 11.5% in the month before (Consensus: 11.5%).

The Eurozone´s consumer price index for the month of October dropped to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.6% in the previous month.

German retail sales grew by 1.5% month-on-month in September (Consensus: 0.3%), versus last month´s reading of 0.3%.

French producer prices increased at a 0.3% month-on-month pace in September (Consensus: 0.2%).

French consumer spending rose by 0.1% month-on-month in September (Consensus: 0.2%), after a fall of 0.8% in August.

Spanish housing permits dropped by 37.2 month-on-month in August, after an increase of 10.6% in July.

Capital flight from Spain slowed down somewhat in August, by -34.7%, to €247.2bn.

Slight rise in crude futures

The euro/dollar is now up by 0.29% to the 1.3010 mark.

Front month Brent crude futures are rising by 0.493 dollars to the 109.62 dollar level on the ICE.


US Market Report

US open: Stocks off on last day of the year for mutual funds
-Last day of the year today for many mutual funds
-Apple at 200 day moving average support
-Lock-up expiry today on Facebook
-Eurozone news weighing on stocks

Dow Jones Industrial: -0.09%
Nasdaq Comp.: -0.70%
S&P 500: -0.21%

Wall Street has fallen into the red, weighed down by the negative news-flow coming out of the Eurozone and weakness in shares of Apple.

Germany´s Finance Minister has reportedly said that it is unlikely that the Troika of international lenders will receive the final report on Greece before the next Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers on November 11th to 12th. That means that traders will have to wait a little bit longer for any possible solution to the current impasse in Greece.

In parallel, the Aegean nation´s two main labour unions have just called for a nation-wide strike.

While it will take time to return to normality in Big Apple a modicum of it is expected to be achieved today on the trading floors. Nevertheless, and as NYSE-Euronext´s Chief Executive signaled overnight, it would not be realistic to expect a completely normal day. 

NAPM Chicago below 50

The employment cost index for the third quarter showed a 0.4% quarter-on-quarterly gain in the three months to September, slightly below the 0.5% economists had foreseen.

The Chicago NAPM regional manufacturing sector purchasing managers´ index for the month of October has come in at 49.9 (just below the contractionary level of 50), versus last month´s reading of 49.7 (Consensus: 51). The new orders sub-index however actually moved up, to 50.6 from 47.4 in September.

For economists at Barclays Research: "(…) In our view, current levels of correlation are not consistent with recessionary conditions, and we believe that local trends will play a more prominent role in these regional indices over the medium term." 
Little movement in other asset classes

10 year US Treasuries are falling by 4/32 dollars this morning, with yields left standing at 1.70%.

Front month West Texas crude futures are rising by 0.72% to the 86.30 dollar level on the NYMEX.



2 comments:

  1. hurricane sandy I believe is one of the most devastating things to hit the U.S. my heart goes out to the family of the 50 people who died in the event. in my own opinion with the huge devastation at the aftermath of sandy the U.S dollar may take some time before it becomes strong again.

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  2. US is lucky to escape with no major damage, our first thoughts are to the families impacted by the storm.

    ReplyDelete