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Daily FX Commentary: (Morning Report)
EUR/USD
The Euro trades in a choppy, after finding temporary ground at 1.2660, fresh two-month low, posted earlier today. Recovery attempts through 1.2700 were so far capped by descending 4h 20 day EMA at 1.2725 and below 1.2740, yesterday’s high and Fib 38.2% of 1.2875/1.2660 descend. As long as the latter stays intact, the downside will remain vulnerable, as hourly negative tone keeps the scenario of fresh weakness through 1.2660 that will open 1.2606, 50% of 1.2042/1.3170, next. Conversely, rally through 1.2740 would shift near-term focus towards more significant 1.2780/1.2800 barriers.
Res: 1.2725, 1.2740, 1.2768, 1.2787
Sup: 1.2670, 1.2660, 1.2606, 1.2588
GBP/USD
Cable’s bounce through initial 1.5900 barrier that was signaled by hourly MACD bullish divergence was short-lived, as subsequent reversal erased nearly all gains from today’s fresh low at 1.5857. Slight improvement on hourly studies, and overextended conditions on 4h chart, see potential of further consolidation, however, no significant results to be expected while the price holds below 1.5950, previous range floor and near Fib 61.8% of 1.6018/1.5857 downleg. Overall bearish tone keeps the downside favored, with break below 200 day MA at 1.5848, seen as a trigger for fresh extension of broader downtrend from 1.6308, towards initial 1.5800 and more significant 1.5670/60, June/July range top.
Res: 1.5914, 1.5914, 1.5928, 1.5950
Sup: 1.5857, 1.5848, 1.5800, 1.5787
USD/JPY
Continuation of consolidative sideways movements, signaled by double Doji, is seen on today’s price action, as the pair continues to range between 79.20 and 79.60, where 200 day MA capped today’s rallies. Hourly studies hold neutral tone, with 4h chart negative studies, requiring break above minimum 79.70, Fib 38.2% of 80.67/79.06, to signal near-term base. Regain of 80.00, psychological barrier and 4h Ichimoku clod base, would confirm near-term recovery. Otherwise, renewed attack at 79.00, could result of fresh weakness towards 78.50, Fib 61.8% of 77.12/80.67 ascend.
Res: 79.63, 79.70, 79.87, 80.00
Sup: 79.36, 79.20, 79.06, 79.00
USD/CHF
The pair remains congested under 0.9500 barrier following brief break higher and failure to sustain gains. Hourly studies are losing momentum, as well as 4h chart indicators that start to point lower and bears running out of steam. This could result in stronger correction, in case today’s spike low at 0.9463 is lost that would open way towards more significant support at 0.9430 zone, last Friday’s low / 01/10 Oct double-top. Larger picture bulls, however, keeps the upside in focus, as clear break above 0.9500 is expected to open 0.9600 zone next.
Res: 0.9500, 0.9511, 0.9524, 0.9550
Sup: 0.9463, 0.9450, 0.9427, 0.9400
Daily Market Commentary: (Evening Report)
London close: Stocks stage late rally but sentiment still fragile
Market Movers
- techMARK 2,062.32 +0.01%
- FTSE 100 5,786.25 +0.33%
- FTSE 250 11,797.22 -0.05%
- Greece granted two more years to meet target
- German sentiment worsens in November
- ITV soars nine per cent after third-quarter figures
A positive start on Wall Street prompted a rally for equity markets this side of the Atlantic on Tuesday afternoon, as investors temporarily shrugged off concerns about the impending 'fiscal cliff', the ongoing Greek debt crisis and a disappointing reading of German sentiment.
Nevertheless, financial trader David White from Spreadex said this afternoon: "The mood in the market can once again be described as fearful and concerned, as investors have spent most of the day raising cash in line with fragile sentiment."
After a Eurogroup meeting yesterday, Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker stated that Greece's deadline to bring debt down to 120% of gross domestic product by 2020 would be extended to 2022. However, the decision to give the go-ahead on the next €31.5bn of aid was postponed until another meeting next week, just as a €5bn bond repayment is due this Friday.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde openly showed her disapproval and said that the two organisations obviously had "different views" on the timetable that the Hellenic Republic needs to complete.
Economic data from Germany dampened the mood further this morning, after the Germany ZEW economic sentiment index worsened to -15.7 in November, from -11.5 the month before. Analysts were expected a slight improvement to -10.0. ZEW President Wolfgang Franz said: "Prevailing recessionary developments in the Eurozone impact the German economy via foreign trade and a lack of confidence. This is likely to be a burden for economic growth in Germany during the next six months".
In domestic news, the UK consumer prices index (CPI) measure of annual inflation came in at 2.7% in October, up from 2.2% in September, according to the Office for National Statistics. This rise was considerably stronger than anticipated by analysts, who had pencilled in 2.4%. The ONS also said that producer price index (PPI) was flat in October at an annualised 2.5%, in line with expectations.
There was also news that China is "actively studying" the expansion of the property tax programme on concerns that transaction volumes and home prices could increase "substantially", according to the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Jiang Weixin.
- German sentiment worsens in November
- ITV soars nine per cent after third-quarter figures
A positive start on Wall Street prompted a rally for equity markets this side of the Atlantic on Tuesday afternoon, as investors temporarily shrugged off concerns about the impending 'fiscal cliff', the ongoing Greek debt crisis and a disappointing reading of German sentiment.
Nevertheless, financial trader David White from Spreadex said this afternoon: "The mood in the market can once again be described as fearful and concerned, as investors have spent most of the day raising cash in line with fragile sentiment."
After a Eurogroup meeting yesterday, Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker stated that Greece's deadline to bring debt down to 120% of gross domestic product by 2020 would be extended to 2022. However, the decision to give the go-ahead on the next €31.5bn of aid was postponed until another meeting next week, just as a €5bn bond repayment is due this Friday.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde openly showed her disapproval and said that the two organisations obviously had "different views" on the timetable that the Hellenic Republic needs to complete.
Economic data from Germany dampened the mood further this morning, after the Germany ZEW economic sentiment index worsened to -15.7 in November, from -11.5 the month before. Analysts were expected a slight improvement to -10.0. ZEW President Wolfgang Franz said: "Prevailing recessionary developments in the Eurozone impact the German economy via foreign trade and a lack of confidence. This is likely to be a burden for economic growth in Germany during the next six months".
In domestic news, the UK consumer prices index (CPI) measure of annual inflation came in at 2.7% in October, up from 2.2% in September, according to the Office for National Statistics. This rise was considerably stronger than anticipated by analysts, who had pencilled in 2.4%. The ONS also said that producer price index (PPI) was flat in October at an annualised 2.5%, in line with expectations.
There was also news that China is "actively studying" the expansion of the property tax programme on concerns that transaction volumes and home prices could increase "substantially", according to the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Jiang Weixin.
Europe Market Report
Europe midday: Periphery stocks turn up
-Banks deposit 251bn euros overnight at ECB
-Greece auctions 4.1bn euros in T-bills
FTSE-100: -0.55%
Dax-30: -0.80%
Cac-40: -0.59%
FTSE Mibtel 30: 0.02%
Ibex 35: 0.15%
Stoxx 600: -0.40%
The main European Equity benchmarks are now registering large losses. That after a public disagreement between the International Monetary Fund and the Eurogroup came to light last night.
More specifically, Eurozone Finance Ministers –whose official grouping is known as the Eurogroup- wish to extend the date for Greece to meet its target of reaching a public debt to gross domestic product ratio of 120% to 2022, instead of 2020.
The IMF, however, apparently does not see a need for that.
In the final analysis the falling out seems to come down to whether or not European governments have to take write-downs on their holdings of Greek debt or not.
As well, the Eurogroup´s proposal entails that a solution must be found to the funding gap –of approximately €33bn- which will arise as a result of following the above course of action.
Nevertheless, different reports are again indicating that so long as Greece does what it needs to then European authorities will continue to find ways to keep it inside the single currency. In other words, Brussels at least seems to have garnered sufficient support for that.
Furthermore, Greece´s succesful auction of €4.1bn in T-bills this morning means hat it now has nearly enough funds to roll over €5bn in debt coming due on Friday. Potential further buyers will have until noon on the previous day to present new bids.
Acting as a backdrop, there continue to be latent worries regarding the so-called "fiscal cliff" Stateside.
From a sector stand-point the worst performance on the DJ Stoxx 600 is now to be seen in the following industrial groups: Utilities (-2.93%), Telecommunications (-1.46%) and Basic resources (-1.29%).
-Greece auctions 4.1bn euros in T-bills
FTSE-100: -0.55%
Dax-30: -0.80%
Cac-40: -0.59%
FTSE Mibtel 30: 0.02%
Ibex 35: 0.15%
Stoxx 600: -0.40%
The main European Equity benchmarks are now registering large losses. That after a public disagreement between the International Monetary Fund and the Eurogroup came to light last night.
More specifically, Eurozone Finance Ministers –whose official grouping is known as the Eurogroup- wish to extend the date for Greece to meet its target of reaching a public debt to gross domestic product ratio of 120% to 2022, instead of 2020.
The IMF, however, apparently does not see a need for that.
In the final analysis the falling out seems to come down to whether or not European governments have to take write-downs on their holdings of Greek debt or not.
As well, the Eurogroup´s proposal entails that a solution must be found to the funding gap –of approximately €33bn- which will arise as a result of following the above course of action.
Nevertheless, different reports are again indicating that so long as Greece does what it needs to then European authorities will continue to find ways to keep it inside the single currency. In other words, Brussels at least seems to have garnered sufficient support for that.
Furthermore, Greece´s succesful auction of €4.1bn in T-bills this morning means hat it now has nearly enough funds to roll over €5bn in debt coming due on Friday. Potential further buyers will have until noon on the previous day to present new bids.
Acting as a backdrop, there continue to be latent worries regarding the so-called "fiscal cliff" Stateside.
From a sector stand-point the worst performance on the DJ Stoxx 600 is now to be seen in the following industrial groups: Utilities (-2.93%), Telecommunications (-1.46%) and Basic resources (-1.29%).
Spain´s consumer price index came in at 3.5% year-on-year in September (Consensus: 3.5%).
French non-farm payrolls were down by 0.3% in the third quarter (Consensus: -0.2%).
Crude off again
The euro/dollar is now falling by 0.19% to the 1.2680 dollar level.
Front month crude futures are now down by 0.841 dollars to the $108.16 mark on the ICE
US Market Report
US open: Equities turn around
-Greek Finance Minister warns of high risk of accidents
-Obama to meet labour and business leaders today
-Home Depot is leading gainers on the Dow Jones
Dow Jones Industrial: 0.63%
Nasdaq Comp.: 0.13%
S&P 500: 0.58%
The main US equity indices have turned around and are now heading higher. This on a relatively barren day in terms of the macroeconomic calendar and with investors´ eyes firmly on technical support levels.
Meantime, and on the corporate front, Microsoft is falling 4.5% after announcing the departure of its Windows.
The NFIB small business confidence index rose to 93.1 points in October from 92.8 in the previous month (Consensus: 93).
US Federal Reserve Vice-President Janet Yellen is to speak tonight, at 20:30.
Weekly Redbook retail sales dropped by 0.2%, following a fall of 0.6% in the previous week.
Treasury yields keep dropping
10 year US Treasuries are now rising by 5/32 dollars, with yields at 1.59%.
Front month West Texas crude futures are now falling by 0.35 dollars to the 85.22 dollar mark on the NYMEX.
US Federal Reserve Vice-President Janet Yellen is to speak tonight, at 20:30.
Weekly Redbook retail sales dropped by 0.2%, following a fall of 0.6% in the previous week.
Treasury yields keep dropping
10 year US Treasuries are now rising by 5/32 dollars, with yields at 1.59%.
Front month West Texas crude futures are now falling by 0.35 dollars to the 85.22 dollar mark on the NYMEX.
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