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Daily FX Commentary: (Morning Report)
EUR/USD
The Euro resumes near-term rally from 1.2660, 13 Nov low, with overnight’s acceleration through 1.2843 Fibonacci barrier, extending gains close to initial targets at 1.2875/85. Brief correction on overbought hourlies is underway and so far contained at initial 1.2828 support, with further supports at 1.2814/00, reinforced by ascending 55 day EMA and 200 day MA. Positive sentiment keeps the upside favored, as clearance of 1.2900 would likely open way towards psychological 1.3000 barrier.
Res: 1.2866, 1.2875, 1.2885, 1.2900
Sup: 1.2833, 1.2814, 1.2800, 1.2785
GBP/USD
Rally from 1.5826, 15 Nov low, retraced over 38.2% of 1.6174/1.5826 downleg at 1.5968, yesterday’s high. Consolidative phase on overbought hourly studies is likely going to precede fresh rally, as near-term structure holds bullish momentum. Resumption of the uptrend to focus strong barrier at 1.6000, where 50% retracement and main bear-trendline lie. Break here is required to confirm near-term base and allow for stronger recovery. Previous peak at 1.5935, offers initial support, with bullish EMA’s crossover at 1.5920, underpinning the advance. Only slide below 1.5900 and 1.5882, would question near-term bulls.
Res: 1.5968, 1.6000, 1.6018, 1.6041
Sup: 1.5954, 1.5935, 1.5920, 1.5900
USD/JPY
The pair consolidates recent gains that resulted in fresh 7-month high at 82.63. Overall bullish structure, sees the upside favored for test of the next target at psychological barrier at 83.00, however, overextended 4h studies, as well as dailies that approach overbought territory, could signal more significant corrective action. Immediate supports lie at 82.35/00, ahead of 81.58, previous peak.
Res: 82.53, 83.00, 83.29, 83.38
Sup: 82.35, 82.00, 81.70, 81.58
USD/CHF
Fresh weakness and yesterday’s close below 200 day MA at 0.9400, confirms near-term bearish stance, following unsuccessful corrective rally that failed to regain 0.9489 breakpoint. The downside remains in focus, as the price dips below Fib 61.8% of 0.9275/0.9511 rally, hitting fresh low at 0.9356 so far. Immediate downside targets lie at 0.9340 and 0.9300, ahead of 0.9275, 31 Oct higher low. Previous strong supports at 0.9400/30 zone, now act as resistance and are expected to cap for now.
Res: 0.9390, 0.9400, 0.9427, 0.9456
Sup: 0.9368, 0.9356, 0.9340, 0.9300
Daily Market Commentary: (Evening Report)
Stocks rise on low volumes
Market Movers
techMARK 2,066.49 +0.58%
FTSE 100 5,791.03 +0.68%
FTSE 250 11,861.74 +0.67%
Market Movers
techMARK 2,066.49 +0.58%
FTSE 100 5,791.03 +0.68%
FTSE 250 11,861.74 +0.67%
With trading volumes light owing to
Thanksgiving, upbeat Chinese manufacturing data saw UK markets finish
Thursday’s session with decent gains in spite of the ongoing
uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone.
Research analyst Joshua Mahony from Alpari said: “Today marks the holiday of Thanksgiving in the US, bringing lowered volumes in the market. Tomorrow will be a half day for many too which typically is taken as a day off to create a four-day weekend. Therefore the higher volatility associated with lower volumes is expected through tomorrow.”
The 'flash' HSBC Chinese purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the month of October came in at 50.4, up from 49.5 for the previous month. That constitutes a thirteen-month high.
Financial sales trader Matthew Nelson from Spreadex said this morning: "News that manufacturing output had risen in China for the first time in more than a year helped to underpin sentiment in the East and the figures have also aided the prospects of UK metals and energy companies with the bulk of this morning’s shift coming from the two sectors."
However, data from the Eurozone was less cheery today, with the single-currency region heading for its weakest quarter since the height of the financial crisis in 2009, according to the latest figures from Markit. The Eurozone composite PMI was little-changed in November, up fractionally from 45.7 in October to 45.8.
Meanwhile, French bank Societe Generale has forecast that Spain will stay in recession and not return to economic growth until 2015.
Elsewhere, the EU summit started today as leaders look to establish a new long-term budget for the 2014-2020 period. Alpari analyst Mahony said: “The meeting pulls together the leaders of each of the 27 European Union member states and is expected to be a rather frosty affair given the propensity those involved to use the meeting as a show of strength to their domestic electorate.”
Research analyst Joshua Mahony from Alpari said: “Today marks the holiday of Thanksgiving in the US, bringing lowered volumes in the market. Tomorrow will be a half day for many too which typically is taken as a day off to create a four-day weekend. Therefore the higher volatility associated with lower volumes is expected through tomorrow.”
The 'flash' HSBC Chinese purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the month of October came in at 50.4, up from 49.5 for the previous month. That constitutes a thirteen-month high.
Financial sales trader Matthew Nelson from Spreadex said this morning: "News that manufacturing output had risen in China for the first time in more than a year helped to underpin sentiment in the East and the figures have also aided the prospects of UK metals and energy companies with the bulk of this morning’s shift coming from the two sectors."
However, data from the Eurozone was less cheery today, with the single-currency region heading for its weakest quarter since the height of the financial crisis in 2009, according to the latest figures from Markit. The Eurozone composite PMI was little-changed in November, up fractionally from 45.7 in October to 45.8.
Meanwhile, French bank Societe Generale has forecast that Spain will stay in recession and not return to economic growth until 2015.
Elsewhere, the EU summit started today as leaders look to establish a new long-term budget for the 2014-2020 period. Alpari analyst Mahony said: “The meeting pulls together the leaders of each of the 27 European Union member states and is expected to be a rather frosty affair given the propensity those involved to use the meeting as a show of strength to their domestic electorate.”
Europe Market Report
Investors braced for protracted haggling in Brussels
FTSE-100: 0.60% Dax-30: 0.80%
Cac-40: 0.29%
FTSE-Mibtel 30: 0.76%
Ibex 35: 0.97%
Stoxx 600: 0.44%
The main European equity benchmarks were registering moderate rises ahead of the start of the European Union summit in Brussels, in the evening, where leaders were expected to haggle over the next long-term budget (2014-2020) to the last pence.
Acting as a backdrop, and as is often the case, the fact that US markets are closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday led to a reduction in European trading volumes.
Simply put, investors are bracing for what in the past has sometimes turned into a tortuous and long drawn-out affair, as national interests come to the fore. More so given the austerity prevalent across the globe at the moment.
Never the less, hopes rose as EU President Van Rompuy’s latest proposal for a small reduction in the trillion euro budget appeared to be gathering support, including from the UK, according to some published reports.
The Spanish Treasury has this morning auctioned 3.88bn euros in medium and long-term debt, ahead of the 3.5bn euros it was aiming for. As well, the Treasury has confirmed that it has conducted a private placement of 3.28bn euros in 5 year debt.
Weaker than forecast economic data
The Eurozone service sector purchasing
managers’ index for the month of November compiled by Markit has come
in at 45.7, versus 46 for the previous month (Consensus: 46).
The Eurozone manufacturing sector purchasing managers’ index for the month of November has come in at 45.8, versus 45.7 for the previous month (Consensus: 45.8).
Italy’s non-EU trade balance improved to €1.47bn in October, after -€657m in the previous month.
Dutch consumer spending remained flat in September in year-on-year terms, versus a 2% drop in the month before.
The Eurozone manufacturing sector purchasing managers’ index for the month of November has come in at 45.8, versus 45.7 for the previous month (Consensus: 45.8).
Italy’s non-EU trade balance improved to €1.47bn in October, after -€657m in the previous month.
Dutch consumer spending remained flat in September in year-on-year terms, versus a 2% drop in the month before.
The euro/dollar is now gaining 0.46% to the 1.2886 dollar mark.
Front month Brent crude futures are falling by 0.326 dollars to the 110.52 dollar level on the ICE.
US Market Report
Markets Closed for Thanks giving
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