EUR/USD
Near-term bulls regained control after the pair found ground at psychological / trendline support at 1.3000 and subsequent bounce closed above initial 1.3088/1.3100 barriers. Gains were so far limited by still bearish 4h 55 day EMA and just ahead of strong 1.3150/60 barriers, 50% retracement of 1.3300/1.2996 and previous consolidation floor / Fib 38.2% expansion of wave from 1.3000, clearance of which would open way towards 1.3200. Four-hour chart indicators are pointing higher, in attempt to break into positive territory, however, reversing hourlies, do not rule out further consolidative / corrective action, with 1.3100/1.3088, offering good support and expected to contain. Only break below 1.3050 would signal an end of near-term corrective phase and bring bears back in play.
Res: 1.3138, 1.3150, 1.3160, 1.3183
Sup: 1.3100, 1.3088, 1.3050, 1.3020
GBP/USD
Cable is losing traction, as yesterday’s rally and close above psychological 1.6100 barrier, failed to sustain gains. Reversal below the latter, pressures strong supports at 1.6080/65, last Friday’s intraday high / daily Ichimoku cloud top, loss of which would re-focus 1.6000. Weakening hourly structure and 4h indicators in the negative territory, support such scenario. However, holding above 1.6065 would keep hopes for fresh recovery alive, with break above 1.6140/50, 55 day EMA / Fib 38.2% of 1.6380/1.6008, required to avert immediate downside risk and open way for recovery towards 1.6200.
Res: 1.6100, 1.6126, 1.6150, 1.6200
Sup: 1.6080, 1.6065, 1.6040, 1.6020
USD/JPY
The pair remains at the back-foot, as basing attempt at 87.60 failed to clear psychological 88.00 barrier and fresh weakness cracked strong supports at 87.35, Fib 38.2% of 85.64/88.40 / 03 Jan previous high. Negative hourly structure and 4h indicators descending from overbought zone, see potential for further retracement, with loss of 87.22, overnight’s low, to open 87.00, 50% retracement and 86.75/70, 03 Jan low / Fib 61.8%. Any bounce higher would face good barrier at 88.00 and only break here to shift focus higher.
Res: 80.43, 80.55, 80.67, 81.00
Sup: 80.00, 79.80, 79.63, 79.27
USD/CHF
Upside rejection at 0.9300 and formation of hourly failure swing, increases the downside risk, as hourly studies turned negative and reversal retraced nearly 50% if 0.9080/0.9300 recovery rally. Temporary support was found at 0.9200, also 55 day EMA, however, holding below 0.9230, previous low / Fib 38.2% and hourly 55 day EMA, would keep focus at the downside, with break below 0.9200 to open way for further retracement and expose 0.9180, previous range top and 0.9163, Fib 61.8%.
Res: 0.9230, 0.9250, 0.9263, 0.9285
Sup: 0.9200, 0.9180, 0.9163, 0.9130
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Daily Market Commentary: (Evening Report)
London close: Slight losses seen on FTSE
Market Movers
- techMARK 2,173.65 +0.08%
- FTSE 100 6,053.63 -0.18%
- FTSE 250 12,635.01 -0.68%
UK stocks ended Tuesday's session with small losses, influenced in part by some weaker-than-expectedeconomic indicators from the Eurozone, marking the second day of losses this year.
Eurozone unemployment hit a new record high of 11.8% in November, according to official figures. This was a slight rise on the 11.7% rate the 17-nation bloc registered in October. More than 26m people are now unemployed across the EU, with that number totalling 18.8m in the Eurozone.
Also of concern was the British Retail Consortium's (BRC) prediction for this 2013. How will 2013 go you say? "Underwhelming" is the BRC's answer.
After reviewing the data economists at Barclays Research are of a similar mind, saying that: "With consumer confidence remaining depressed and spending power growth likely to be measured, we do not expect the retail environment to improve significantly this year."
Sales at stores open at least a year gained 0.3% in December versus a year ago, the worst performance since 2010, when adverse weather conditions deterred shoppers.
Meanwhile, research by a leading business group shows the UK economy grew in the fourth quarter of 2012, despite widespread fears of a triple dip recession.
The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Survey showed a pick up in both the manufacturing and service sectors in the last three months of the year. The survey of 7,662 businesses also found that levels of confidence and investment had increased over the period, despite remaining weak by historical standards.
Eurozone unemployment hit a new record high of 11.8% in November, according to official figures. This was a slight rise on the 11.7% rate the 17-nation bloc registered in October. More than 26m people are now unemployed across the EU, with that number totalling 18.8m in the Eurozone.
Also of concern was the British Retail Consortium's (BRC) prediction for this 2013. How will 2013 go you say? "Underwhelming" is the BRC's answer.
After reviewing the data economists at Barclays Research are of a similar mind, saying that: "With consumer confidence remaining depressed and spending power growth likely to be measured, we do not expect the retail environment to improve significantly this year."
Sales at stores open at least a year gained 0.3% in December versus a year ago, the worst performance since 2010, when adverse weather conditions deterred shoppers.
Meanwhile, research by a leading business group shows the UK economy grew in the fourth quarter of 2012, despite widespread fears of a triple dip recession.
The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Survey showed a pick up in both the manufacturing and service sectors in the last three months of the year. The survey of 7,662 businesses also found that levels of confidence and investment had increased over the period, despite remaining weak by historical standards.
Of possible import, an adviser to China's central bank was cited as saying that it will be more cautious in the second half of the year regarding its monetary policy.
Europe Market Report
Europe midday: Stocks push higher ahead of the BoE and ECB
- Banks deposit 244.5bn euros overnight at ECB
- Weak German import and export data
- Italian banks downgraded
- BoJ to buy ESM bonds
FTSE-100: 0.11%
Dax-30: 0.04%
Cac-40: 0.56%
FTSE Mibtel 30: 0.81%
Ibex 35: 0.58%
Stoxx 600: 0.21%
European stocks had moved back into the blue by midday following an earlier start lower. That following the small losses seen on Wall Street overnight and cautious remarks out from some Chinese policy makers.
Weaker than forecast German export data was surely another factor weighing on European shares early in the session. Even so, this is what economists at Barclays Research were saying, "We therefore believe that the recent weakness in German trade figures is mainly the lagged response to the slowdown in global growth that occurred earlier in 2012. Despite the recent weakness, however, Germany's trade performance in 2012 through November has been much better than expected at the beginning of last year."
Those economists also seem to have given short shrift to the drop seen in imports.
All of the above came ahead of the start of the regular earnings season, Stateside, later today, with the release of Alcoa's results, which are due after the close.
Also worth noting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has announced its intention to acquire bonds issued by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which is a positive for the wider market.
- Weak German import and export data
- Italian banks downgraded
- BoJ to buy ESM bonds
FTSE-100: 0.11%
Dax-30: 0.04%
Cac-40: 0.56%
FTSE Mibtel 30: 0.81%
Ibex 35: 0.58%
Stoxx 600: 0.21%
European stocks had moved back into the blue by midday following an earlier start lower. That following the small losses seen on Wall Street overnight and cautious remarks out from some Chinese policy makers.
Weaker than forecast German export data was surely another factor weighing on European shares early in the session. Even so, this is what economists at Barclays Research were saying, "We therefore believe that the recent weakness in German trade figures is mainly the lagged response to the slowdown in global growth that occurred earlier in 2012. Despite the recent weakness, however, Germany's trade performance in 2012 through November has been much better than expected at the beginning of last year."
Those economists also seem to have given short shrift to the drop seen in imports.
All of the above came ahead of the start of the regular earnings season, Stateside, later today, with the release of Alcoa's results, which are due after the close.
Also worth noting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has announced its intention to acquire bonds issued by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which is a positive for the wider market.
Italian banks downgraded
Weak German import and export data
Italian unemployment remained at an 11.1% rate in November (Consensus: 11.2%).
France's trade deficit improved to -€4.33bn in November, following a reading of -€4.71bn in the previous month (Consensus: -€4.8bn).
Germany's trade surplus shrank in that same month, to €14.6bn from €15.2bn in October (Consensus: €15bn). The country's exports fell by 3.4% month-on-month (Consensus: -0.5%). Imports decreased by a similarly large 3.7%, which may denote underlying weakness in the economy.
Switzerland's unemployment rate rose to 3.3% for December, after a reading of 3.1%.
Slight drop in the single currency
The euro/dollar is now falling by 0.35% to the 1.3078 dollar mark.
Front month Brent crude futures are up by 0.589 dollars to the 112.09 level on the ICE.
US Market Report
US open: Hedge funds expect S&P 500 to rise
- State and local governments back to health
- Overwhelming majority of hedge funds expect S and P 500 to rise
Dow Jones: -0.51%
Nasdaq Comp.: -0.54%
S&P 500: -0.54%
US equities are now registering moderate losses ahead of this evening's results from aluminium giant Alcoa, which typically marks the start of the corporate earnings season on the other side of the pond.
Of interest, state and local governments are in their best financial shape since the recession, giving them leeway to cushion the US economy from federal budget cuts with spending and hiring of their own, according to analysis by Moody's Analytics, Bloomberg reports.
Respondents to a December survey of hedge fund managers carried out by Trimtabs overwhelming expect the S&P 500 to go up this year, but few expected as strong a performance as 2012.
- Overwhelming majority of hedge funds expect S and P 500 to rise
Dow Jones: -0.51%
Nasdaq Comp.: -0.54%
S&P 500: -0.54%
US equities are now registering moderate losses ahead of this evening's results from aluminium giant Alcoa, which typically marks the start of the corporate earnings season on the other side of the pond.
Of interest, state and local governments are in their best financial shape since the recession, giving them leeway to cushion the US economy from federal budget cuts with spending and hiring of their own, according to analysis by Moody's Analytics, Bloomberg reports.
Respondents to a December survey of hedge fund managers carried out by Trimtabs overwhelming expect the S&P 500 to go up this year, but few expected as strong a performance as 2012.
Large drop in retail sales
Same store retail sales dropped 4.2% last week, according to the latest survey data from ICSC.
The NFIB's small company confidence index improved slightly, to 88 points in November (Consensus: 87.2) after a reading of 87.8 in the month before.
Slight rise in cure futures
West Texas crude futures are now rising by 0.39% to the 92.893 dollar mark on the NYMEX.
10 year US Treasury yields are now lower by 3 basis points, to 1.87%.
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