Weekly Market analysis - currency policies remain in focus following FED decision on additional QE

Weekly Market analysis

Monetary and currency policies will remain a very important focus following the Federal Reserve decision to sanction additional quantitative easing during 2013 and further action by the Bank of Japan.  There will be further unease over the implications of currency gains and resistance is liable to increase which will risk fuelling a more aggressive phase of currency wars as central banks look to resist currency appreciation. Key events for the forthcoming week Date Time (GMT) Data release/event Thursday December 27th 15.00 US jobless claims Thursday December 27th 15.00 US consumer confidence Dollar: Fiscal policy will remain important in the short-term as fiscal talks continue and there is likely to be a deterioration in risk appetite which would support the dollar if there is no progress. The Federal Reserve stance will remain an important focus throughout the next few months and the dovish policies will have a negative impact on the US currency as the Fed continues its policies of bond purchases. There will still be expectations that the US economy will out-perform the Euro-zone which should provide some degree of dollar support. There has also been a retreat in precious metals prices which suggests that underlying dollar selling is likely to be contained. The dollar remained on the defensive for much of the week, but did find some respite as risk appetite faded again as the Euro retreated from the 1.33 area. Regional Fed Presidents Lacker and Fisher continued to voice opposition to the recent additional quantitative easing. There were, however, strong expectations that the dovish view would prevail, especially with the doves maintaining a strong position on the 2013 FOMC which will keep policy loose. The US current account deficit narrowed to US$107.5bn from a revised US$118.1bn the previous quarter. As a percentage of GDP the deficit was below 3.0% compared with a peak above 6% of GDP in 2005. There is the potential for a medium-term decline in the deficit as the energy deficit narrows and the US currency will be slightly less vulnerable to underlying selling. The US jobless claims data was slightly weaker than expected with an increase to 361,000 in the latest week from a revised 344,000 figure the previous week. The other releases were stronger than expected with the third-quarter GDP estimate revised up to 3.1% from 2.7%. In addition, there was a stronger than expected reading for existing home sales at 5.04mn from 4.76mn the previous month while the Philadelphia Fed index increased to 8.1 from -10.7 the previous month. US budget negotiations remained an important focus as the House of Representatives debated the so called ‘plan B’. Speaker Boehner insisted that the House had the votes to pass the bill while President Obama stated that it would be vetoed.  As the vote deadline approached, Boehner admitted that he did not have enough support and the vote was cancelled as some Republicans refused to back any tax increases. Further votes are not scheduled until at least December 27th which triggered a sharp deterioration in risk appetite on fears that the year-end deadline would be missed. Markets still expect that a compromise deal will be reached eventually which helped cushion the impact, but sentiment could deteriorate sharply if deadlock persists   Euro There will be further relief that the acute Euro-zone crisis phase has eased with the Greece debt buyback completed while there has been a further decline in peripheral bond yields.  There is a very heavy schedule of peripheral debt issuance during the first quarter of 2013 which will make it difficult for Spain to resist a bailout. The underlying growth outlook remains extremely weak which will maintain pressure for a more aggressive ECB policies. Political tensions will also intensify with Italian elections likely in February and the Euro will find it very difficult to make any sustained headway given the net economic risks.  The Euro advanced to 7-month highs against the dollar on an easing of Euro-zone fears and improved risk appetite and peaked at 1.33 before edging lower. ECB President Draghi was also cautiously optimistic surrounding the 2013 outlook as Euro-zone officials continued their attempts to play-up the economic prospects. Draghi expressed confidence that competitiveness in Spain was starting to improve and was optimistic over the benefits of a single bank supervisor. There was a further increase in bad debts within Spanish banking sector as the ratio rose to a fresh historic high of 11.2% in November from 10.7% previously which will maintain fears over the Spanish outlook.  For now, however, wider fears surrounding the Euro-zone have eased which has encouraged a further drop in speculative short positions against the currency and the Greek credit rating was revised to B- from selective default with a stable outlook. The German IFO index was slightly stronger than expected with a second successive monthly increase to 102.4 from 101.4. Although there was a lower than expected reading for current conditions, the data maintained a more favourable tone. There was a further decline in peripheral bond yields which helped underpin sentiment as Italian benchmark yields declined to a two-year low.  ECB member Asmussen stated that he would be very reluctant to cut the deposit rate to below zero which cast some doubt over the prospects for an ECB rate cut. Yen: The LDP won a huge victory in the recent lower-house elections and the strength of their majority should mean that they can over-ride any veto attempt from the Upper House. The government will push ahead with aggressive policies to combat deflation. There will also be intense pressure on the Bank of Japan to take an even more aggressive stance on monetary policy and the bank will consider an increased inflation target early in 2013.  These pressures will exert downward pressure on the yen, but the currency could still gain at times when there is a deterioration in global risk appetite. The Japanese election result recorded a major LDP victory as they won 294 of the 400 seats in the lower house with their partner winning a further 30. The results give the coalition a two-thirds majority and this is extremely important as the government can over-rule opposition from the Upper House The latest trade data recorded a headline deficit of JPY953bn from a revised JPY549bn previously as exports recorded a 4.1% annual decline. The data reinforced fears surrounding the export outlook and reinforced negative yen sentiment. The Bank of Japan announced a further JPY10trn in quantitative easing which was in line with market expectations. There is still a high degree of pressure on the central bank to take additional steps to boost the economy and sanction additional policy measures. Incoming Prime Minister Abe stated that the central bank was carrying out policy steps sought by the government one at a time in a clear reference to the government expecting further action. The administration is planning an emergency economic package in January and the yen remained under heavy selling pressure. The yen found support towards the 84.50 area against the dollar and recovered ground as risk appetite deteriorated sharply following the collapse in US fiscal cliff talks. The US currency moved back to the 84 area as the Euro retreated to below 111. Sterling There will be further unease surrounding the UK economic outlook with expectations of a weak fourth-quarter.  There will be major uncertainties surrounding Bank of England policies and there will certainly be pressure for the central bank to maintain an aggressive stimulus policy to underpin demand.  There will be speculation over a shift towards nominal GDP targeting when Carney takes over as Governor later next year.  The UK currency will continue to gain some protection from the aggressive policies pursued by other global central banks, but Sterling is unlikely to make significant headway. Sterling was resilient during the week and challenged 3-month highs around 1.63 against the dollar before consolidating slightly lower. There were further concerns surrounding the AAA credit-rating following the Standard & Poor’s decision to downgrade the outlook to negative and there was further speculation that the rating would be lost during 2013.  With the Federal Reserve increasing its bond purchases and the Bank of Japan expand policy further this week, there will be some initial Sterling support on relative grounds with expectations that the Bank of England will hold policy steady in the short-term.. The latest inflation data recorded an unchanged annual rate of 2.7% for November compared with expectations of a marginal decline. Although the RPI rate dipped to 3.0% from 3.2%, there were some expectations that the stickiness in inflation would curb any further quantitative easing by the Bank of England. The Bank of England minutes were broadly in line with expectations as the MPC voted 9-0 for unchanged interest rates while there was a 8-1 vote in favour of leaving quantitative easing on hold as Miles again voted for a further £25bn expansion in bond purchases. The bank was generally pessimistic over the growth outlook and warned over the stickiness of inflation. There were also further calls for a weaker exchange rate with Sterling’s gains described as unhelpful and a headwind for recovery and this is likely to be an important issue during 2013. The headline retail sales report was weaker than expected with sales unchanged for November following a revised 0.7% decline for October. There was also a sharp decline in the latest GfK consumer confidence reading from -22 to -29. Swiss franc: The National Bank will remain strongly committed to maintaining the 1.20 minimum Euro level in the short-term, especially with a strong determination to resist franc appreciation to protect competitiveness. Aggressive policy relaxation elsewhere will maintain the risk that upward pressure on the franc will intensify again as investors look for a safe-haven, especially if the Japanese yen is subjected to further selling pressure. The dollar remained firmly on the defensive against the franc and dipped to fresh 7-month lows just below 0.91 before staging a weak corrective recovery. The Euro consolidated around the 1.2080 area with narrow ranges prevailing. With liquidity declining into the Christmas period there is likely to be an increased reluctance to take on the National Bank and the 1.20 minimum level and a potential for a further round of short Euro covering. There were wider concerns surrounding the risk of renewed tensions during 2013 and the franc also gained support from a lack of attractive safe-havens, especially with the yen under serious selling pressure. Australian dollar The Australian dollar continued to probe resistance above 1.05 against the dollar during the week, but it was unable to sustain the gains and retreated back to below the 1.05 level. The currency was unsettled to some extent by a decline in gold prices and dipped again when there was a deterioration in risk appetite. The monetary policy minutes suggested that the bank could be cautious over further interest rate cuts, but Reserve Bank Governor Stevens also continued to suggest that the currency was over-valued and that it should be weaker. There is likely to be resistance to currency gains with the Reserve Bank under pressure to push the currency weaker, especially if growth fears intensify. Canadian dollar: The Canadian dollar was unable to make further headway during the week and edged back to the 0.99 area as narrow ranges generally prevailed. The latest retail sales data was stronger than expected which provided some relief and oil prices were generally firm, but a decline in gold prices had some negative impact. Even with near-term resilience and optimism surrounding the fundamentals, the Canadian dollar will find it difficult to advance from current levels.

Daily FX & Market Commentary - Traders Keep Close Eye On Washington

Daily FX Commentary: (Morning Report)

EUR/USD

The single currency is taking a pause in recent strong rally, as psychological 1.3300 level proves to be tough barrier. Subsequent quick pullback and slide below 1.3200 handle, sidelines near-term bulls, as hourly indicators moved in the negative territory and notion being supported by Gravestone Doji that signals loss of upward momentum and stronger reversal. With initial strong support at 1.3200/1.3186 being dented, where 20 day EMA contained dips for now. However, further reversal cannot be ruled out, with next support at 1.3140 zone, Fib 38.2% of 1.2876/1.3307 and 17 Dec low, required to hold and prevent the pair form deeper slide. On the upside, lift above 1.3250 would signal higher low and shift focus towards 1.3300 barrier. Strong bullish stance on a daily chart, still keeps the upside favored, with 1.3360, weekly 90 day MA and 1.3380, April highs, seen as near-term targets.

Res: 1.3227, 1.3253, 1.3307, 1.3360
Sup: 1.3200, 1.3186, 1.3142, 1.3100 

GBP/USD

Near-term bulls are losing traction, after Cable briefly tested very strong 1.6300 barrier but failure to sustain gains, resulted reversal to initial support zone at 1.6240, where 55 day EMA so far contained losses. Negative structure on hourly chart, with price holding below descending 20 day EMA and 4h indicators reversing from overbought zone, see potential for further retracement, with 1.6200, round figure / near 38.2% of 1.6000/1.6305, seen as next downside target, with break here to confirm near-term top and open way towards 1.6100.

Res: 1.6260, 1.6268, 1.6300, 1.6308
Sup: 1.6236, 1.6200, 1.6190, 1.6175


USD/JPY

The pair dips below psychological 84.00 support, as gains stalled at 84.61 and reversal retraced nearly 61.8% of 83.30/84.61 upleg at 83.84. near-term structure is now negatively aligned, with immediate risk seen towards 83.60/30 support. Losing the latter will also fill last Monday’s gap and risk stronger correction of the recent rally. Reversing 4h and overbought daily studies are supporting such scenario, with close below 84.00, required to confirm. Conversely, regain of previous top at 84.32, would avert immediate downside risk.

Res: 84.00, 84.32, 84.46, 84.61
Sup: 83.80, 83.60, 83.30, 83.00 


USD/CHF

The pair enters corrective phase after fresh losses through psychological 0.9100 support, found temporary ground at 0.9085, 20 day lower Bollinger Band. Subsequent bounce so far tested initial barrier and previous low at 0.9150, where 20 day EMA limited recovery for now. Improved conditions on hourly chart, see potential for possible further extension higher and test of psychological 0.9200 barrier, break of which is required to confirm recovery. From the other side, firmly bearish daily structure, sees the current move as corrective and preceding fresh weakness that would focus 0.9040/00, next downside targets.

Res: 0.9153, 0.9200, 0.9240, 0.9268
Sup: 0.9126, 0.9100, 0.9085, 0.9040

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Daily Market Commentary: (Evening Report)

London Market Report

Stocks finish flat on US budget uncertainty

    Market Movers
    techMARK 2,131.98 +0.12%
    FTSE 100 5,958.34 -0.05%
    FTSE 250 12,422.77 +0.16%

The FTSE 100 index finished broadly flat on Thursday afternoon, taking a pause of two days of decent gains, with the focus remaining on the US 'fiscal cliff' ahead of the Christmas holiday.

Even a positive surprise in US gross domestic product (GDP) failed to give markets a boost. The American economy expanded at an adjusted annual rate of 3.1% in the third quarter, well ahead of the previously estimated 2.7% growth forecast.

"European markets have struggled to retest yesterday’s highs despite gaining momentum in the first few hours of trading," said sales trader Toby Morris from CMC Markets.

"Investors saw the early recovery from yesterday’s late sell off halted with traders unable to find any real distractions to the politics in the US to push markets to new levels," he said.

Stocks finished slightly higher on Wednesday after Standard & Poor's upgraded Greece's credit rating to 'B-minus' and the IFO German business climate index beat expectations. However, gains were pared by the close after the White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer said that President Barack Obama would veto any ‘plan B’ for the 'fiscal cliff' from House Speaker John Boehner.

Europe Market Report 

European Markets Finished Mixed On Fiscal Cliff Concerns

The European markets ended Thursday's trading session with mixed results. The stalemate in the U.S. fiscal cliff negotiations has investors concerned, as the end of the year draws ever closer. The strong upward revision in U.S. GDP for the third quarter initially sparked gains in Europe, which then quickly eroded.

The White House Wednesday threatened to veto a plan put forward by leading House Republicans aimed at delaying the onset of the 'fiscal cliff.' The plan, called 'Plan B,' was presented by House Speaker John Boehner.

According to a White House, Boehner's proposal would only raise roughly a third of the $1 trillion in tax increases from high-income households that had previously been proposed by the Speaker.

The White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer said President Barack Obama is still seeking "a significant, balanced deal that is good for American families, the economy and for our nation's future" and has put forward a proposal that offers to meet Boehner halfway on taxes and spending.

The European Commission on Thursday approved restructuring plans of four Spanish banks, allowing those banks to receive aid from the Eurozone bailout fund. The commission concluded that the restructuring plans of four Spanish banks, namely Liberbank, Caja3, Banco Mare Nostrum (BMN) and Banco CEISS, are in line with EU state aid rules.

The Italian Senate has approved Prime Minister Mario Monti's budget bill for 2013. Monti had previously announced that he will resign as Prime Minister once the budget receives final approval. His resignation will lead to a general election.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index of eurozone bluechip stocks increased by 0.21 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 50 index, which includes some major U.K. companies, declined by 0.05 percent.

The DAX of Germany climbed by 0.05 percent and the CAC 40 of France gained 0.50 percent. The FTSE 100 of the U.K. fell by 0.05 percent and the SMI of Switzerland decreased by 0.48 percent.

US Market Report

Stocks Nearly Flat As Traders Keep Close Eye On Washington

Stocks continue to turn in a lackluster performance in mid-day trading on Thursday amid renewed uncertainty about the looming fiscal cliff. The focus on developments in Washington has overshadowed a batch of largely upbeat economic data.

Currently, the major averages are nearly flat on the day. While the S&P 500 has edged up 1.62 points or 0.1 percent to 1,437.43, the Dow is down 1.80 points or less than a tenth of a percent at 13,250.17 and the Nasdaq is down 1.64 points or 0.1 percent at 3,042.72.

The choppy trading on Wall Street comes as traders continue to keep a close eye on Washington, as uncertainty about the fiscal cliff has crept back into the markets following recent comments by President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner.

Boehner has indicated that he will bring his "Plan B" legislation to the floor of the House for a vote despite a veto threat from the White House.

The "Plan B" legislation would extend the Bush-era tax cuts for people making up to $1 million, but Democrats claim it would raise taxes on millions of working families.

Boehner has argued that the president would be responsible for the largest tax increase in American history if he can't persuade Senate Democrats to approve the legislation.

As a result of the focus on the budget negotiations, traders have largely shrugged off the latest batch of U.S. economic data, including reports showing stronger than expected existing home sales growth and a rebound in Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity.

The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 5.9 percent to an annual rate of 5.04 million in November from a downwardly revised 4.76 million in October. Economists had expected existing home sales to climb to 4.90 million.

With the bigger than expected increase, existing home sales rose to their highest level since spiking to 5.44 million in November of 2009.

Separately, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its diffusion index of current activity climbed to a positive 8.1 in December from a negative 10.7 in November, with a positive reading indicating an increase in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to remain negative.

The Commerce Department also released a report showing a bigger than expected upward revision to the pace of GDP growth in the third quarter, while the Labor Department reported a modest rebound in weekly jobless claims.

Other Markets


In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region turned in a mixed performance during trading on Thursday. While Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 1.2 percent following recent strength, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index inched up by 0.2 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries are pulling back near the unchanged line after moving higher earlier in the session. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, is down by less than a basis point at 1.793 percent after hitting a low of 1.77 percent.

==================================================================== Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Daily FX & Market Commentary: Fiscal cliff resolution may be postponed

Daily FX Commentary: (Morning Report)

EUR/USD

The Euro remains well supported, with last Friday’s surge through key barriers at 1.3138/70, resulted in testing levels just under psychological 1.3200 level and 30d Bollinger Band during the Asian session. Corrective easing is seen likely, as hourly indicators are emerging out of overbought zone, while 4h ones started o reverse. However, overall bullish tone remains intact, as clear break above 1.3200 would signal fresh bull phase after three-month congestion under 1.3170/38 peaks. On the upside, immediate target lies at 1.3282, 01 May high and psychological 1.3300 barrier. With dips being contained by 20 day EMA at 1.3140 for now, next strong supports lies at 1.3100 zone, also 55 day EMA and 1.3070, last Friday low / Fib 38.2% of 1.2876/1.3186 ascend.

Res: 1.3170, 1.3186, 1.3200, 1.3250
Sup: 1.3142, 1.3118, 1.3100, 1.3065 

GBP/USD

Cable is poised to break above psychological 1.6200 barrier, also Fib 76.4% of 1.6308/1.5826, the last barrier en-route to strong 1.6300 resistance zone. Near-term studies are positively aligned and keep the upside favored, with psychological support at 1.6100, also 50% of 1.6000/1.6200, expected to contain any stronger reversal.

Res: 1.6200, 1.6216, 1.6250, 1.6271
Sup: 1.6175, 1.6155, 1.6130, 1.6100


USD/JPY

Strong bullish stance has been confirmed by overnight’s gap-higher opening, as the price broke above previous annual high at 84.17. Corrective action off overnight’s fresh high at 84.32, holds for now above last week’s closing price, with any stronger retracement, as 4h studies are overbought and divergence appears on hourly chart, would face good supports at 83.30 and 83.00, levels expected to contain. On the upside, psychological 85.00 barrier comes in the near-term focus.

Res: 84.00, 84.15, 84.32, 84.50
Sup: 83.84, 83.50, 83.30, 83.00 


USD/CHF

Near-term bears remain fully in play, as the pair dips to 0.9150, following loss of 0.9200 base. Brief corrective action on oversold near-term conditions strong barriers at 0.9200/40 area that are expected to cap, with 0.9100 zone seen in the near-term focus, as the pair resumes broader downtrend from 0.9970, 24 July annual high.

Res: 0.9192, 0.9200, 0.9213, 0.9240
Sup: 0.9175, 1.9164, 0.9151, 0.9100

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Daily Market Commentary: (Evening Report)

London Market Report

London close: Stocks falls as 'fiscal cliff' deadline looms
Market Movers

• techMARK 2,107.82 -0.40%
• FTSE 100 5,912.15 -0.16%
• FTSE 250 12,218.58 -0.21%

Increasing optimism surrounding budget talks between US politicians may have helped the FTSE 100 come off its intraday low, but the index was stuck firmly in negative territory with markets remaining nervous ahead of the January 1st deadline.

Without a deal, the $600bn in automatic spending cuts and tax increases which come into effect are expected to pull the US economy back into recession.

House Speaker John Boehner, under increasing pressure to soften his opposition to raising taxes for the wealthy, made an offer over the weekend that proposed increasing taxes on those who earn over $1m. While the Obama administration declined the proposal – it wants higher taxes for those who take in more than $250,000 a year – the White House described the offer as "progress".

"It's like a game of chicken between President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner. Both know they must soften their stance at some point if they are going to come to an agreement, but neither wants to do it first," said market analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari.

"Boehner has now tempted Obama in claiming he may be willing to allow tax breaks expire for millionaires in exchange for cuts to entitlements, however Obama is unlikely to go for it, instead sticking to his original demands of tax hikes on the top 2%. What it may do though is encourage Obama to offer something in return which is desperately needed if these talks are going to progress given that there's only two weeks until the deadline." 

Europe Market Report 

Europe midday: Italy and Spain hold steady

- Peugeot leads gains on the Stoxx 600
- Shares of KPN crater
- Banks deposited 225.06bn euros overnight at ECB

FTSE-100: -0.49%
Dax-30: -0.03%
Cac-40: -0.36%
FTSE Mibtel 30: 0.13%
Ibex 35: 0.07%
Stoxx 600: -0.25%

The main European equity benchmarks were registering slight falls by the midday mark, despite news that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had won in this past weekend´s elections in Japan. The LDP has been a fierce critic of the Bank of Japan, pressuring it to carry out a more aggressive monetary policy.

Market commentary is linking the selling pressure in equities to doubts and worries regarding the outlook for the US fiscal cliff; more specifically, the possibility that any agreement might get pushed out beyond year-end.

In European news, Germany´s central bank – the Bundesbank – has today forecast that the country´s phase of economic weakness could "soon be over," even if it does expect a "noticeable" contraction in fourth quarter gross domestic product. 

Trade surplus contracted in October

Labour costs in the Eurozone rose at a 2.0% year-on-year clip in the third quarter, according to Eurostat.

The Eurozone trade surplus fell to €7.9bn in October, from a revised level of €11bn in the month before (Consensus: €11bn). 

 

Slight drop in the single currency
The euro/dollar was dropping 0.07% to the 1.3160 dollar level.

Front month Brent crude futures were rising by 0,120 dollars to the 108.31 dollar per barrel mark on the ICE.

US Market Report

US open: Fiscal cliff resolution may be postponed until January
-Analysts see 10 per cent rise next year in S&P 500

Dow Jones Industrials: 0.35%
Nasdaq Composite: 0.44%
S&P 500: 0.45%

The major US equity benchmarks began the session moving higher.

While today is rather light in terms of the economic calendar, rather the opposite is true of the rest of the week.

Acting as a backdrop, the news-flow regarding the fiscal cliff is mixed at best. On the one hand, some reports suggest that both Republicans and Democrats are beginning to 'talk' of possibly waiting until January before signing off on anything. That delay seems to have irked some investors.

On the other hand, the Republican speaker of the House, John Boehner, is willing to accept higher taxes on millionaires in exchange for restraint on spending on entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security.

Obama, however, has rejected that proposal, possibly due to the fact that he wishes to tax higher incomes starting from $200.000 per individual or $250,000 per family. 

Slight rise in other asset classes
10 year US Treasury yields were higher by 1 basis point, to 1.72%.

Front month West Texas crude futures were rising by 0.3% to the 86.91 dollar per barrel mark on the NYMEX.

==================================================================== Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.